BJP Ahead???

I fervantly hope that the polling picks up. 

The percentages till now have been disappointing to say the least. The Urban voters, those constant complainers, them forwarders of chain smses and hyperventilating news-viewers - have disappointed. When the time came to actually do something, most of them decided to enjoy the holiday. So much for Generation X and the new activist populace.

I did vote - most certainly. It would be hypocritical of me to advertize the ballot and not heed my own advice. Well, there are a few who haven't had the time to log in and check their names on the list - topping this list of great people who couldn't spare a minute is LK Advani. What does it say if he is asking for millions of votes, but doesn't have the time to realize that his own name isn't on the lists... it isn't hard really. Coming close is ISRO Chief Madhavan Nair - he can send up the most hi-tech gizmos thousands of miles up into the black yonder, but finds it difficult to do a few clicks on his computer. 

Forgetting these worthies, after two (3 when you read it), the trends do seem varied - While exit polls may be banned, I can direct you to Swapan Dasgupta's blog (http://swapan55.blogspot.com)  for the trends.

What does seem clear is that UPA is slipping (which is somewhat consistent with my predictions). What is unclear is whether NDA can make up the numbers. I think that it will need to find allies very fast. But definite gains are likely.

I do see a definite improvement for the BJP in urban areas, based on a qualitative indicator. While a majority of youth may have slouched at home and watched people queueing up at the booths (well, there weren't any) on NDTV, there has been a definite upsurge in the level of interest of those who did vote. The best part is that they are not bashful to declare their allegiance. I have had a large number of youngsters openly discussing their votes and why they chose so. Such a strong political sense is to be applauded and enjoyed.

Even more heartening is the fact that even larger numbers of people have been asking others if they voted - that creates a social incentive/peer pressure to vote. Good again.

Coming to the qualitative trend, I mentioned that a large number of urban voters were happy to say who they vote for (something that I can't imagine happening in the rural hinterland or even in most small towns). A large majority (I'd put it at 66-75%) of them were proud to have voted for BJP. The major reason simply was change. In my opinion, this is an interesting trend, where parties trump over candidates (something that I agree with, at least with the Lok Sabha polls - I'll explain why later).

So what do I think... I think NDA will gain in urban areas, at least with those among gen x who voted. But whether that will translate into larger gains than I thought remains to be seen.

A message for those who can vote in the next two rounds - VOTE!!!!!

Election Watch: Joining the astrologers - Poll predictions

I'm loath to predict the results of this elections, given the 2004 fiasco, but I'll try... maybe we can try verifying that with what the astrologers say:

It will be a hung house, with Congress losing upto 20 seats from last time. They will however gain seats in other areas, especially Orissa (although BJD will do much better over there). BJP will definitely do better, and will probably make up around 20 seats. However, both of these are not enough to get them to power, unless they band together - not likely either.

Regional parties will find this election to be their starting gun for the future - the 3rd front will get around 120 seats, but will disintegrate after the results - most of the constituents, who are even more promiscuous than the Congress (common whores have less of a choice than a courtesan) will join one or the other. Left will be left cold.

Given the BJP's infighting, it is difficult to see how they can actually pull this off... Congress has had a headstart, but their own house seems more precarious than a mountain of melting butter. BJP will gain from UPA's shakiness, and the splitting of the "secular" vote.

Final prediction - UPA may come back, but with a wafer thin majority. However, that depends on their allies. BJP could still pull it off, if they can stitch up alliances fast. They still need to have a good development-driven, common-man-focussed manifesto though - and sell that hard.

Election Watch: 4 Reasons why I'd vote for Congress, & the 3 reasons why I would think twice

(Like the 12 days of Christmas, I'll probably add a couple more reasons when they strike my brain, but right now, its 4 reasons).

1. Youth:

Whatever their faults, the congress does have the advantage of having, and most certainly encouraging young, dynamic, and well educated leaders. Forget Rahul Gandhi, what about people like Milind Deora, Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and others. A strong second line of leaders with strength for administration. This, in spite of the fact that the party does have a tradition of intrigue and pitting two satraps against each other to strengthen the central hand.

The Youth Congress, which is by far the largest, most organized and most influential youth wing of any indian political party has an extremely strong tradition. Wild, rude and criminal behaviour of some of their leaders notwithstanding, they do bring out some able guys once in a while. It is this emphasis on youth that enthuses me.

BUT:
The problem, as I have pointed out, is that these dynamic guys rarely get the chance to rule, one, because the constant bickering means that the older leaders choose their own proxies, and would not want an independent minded guy, and second, because local alliances usually overrule any attempt at putting able leaders. Hopefully Rahul Gandhi can change that a bit.

2. A strong second rung:

Compared to the other big National party, the BJP (and CPM at a distant third), the Congress has a far larger bench-strength of National level crowdpullers and mass leaders, and strong second rung, while the BJP is mostly limited to regional kings who have little national recognition - the ones that do are not mass leaders, but managers.

If the BJP has Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Yashwant Sinha and others, the Congress has a far larger base of leaders who can actually gain them votes, and can also govern - Kapil Sibal, Digvijay Singh, Murli Deora, etc etc etc. It doesn't hurt that many of them are actually quite well educated. This would theoratically make the party stronger, more dynamic and gives it a firm foundation. The Congress can thus manage to fill a cabinet with a good number of strong and educated leaders, rather than having to scrounge around for people.

BUT:
The "Theoratically" word in the previous sentence said it all - all these second rung mass leaders and their strength and education comes to nought in the absence of inner-party democracy (something that the BJP abounds in - the recent infighting proves that). When everyone needs to pander to and obey her highness' words without question, that Oxford degree is useless.

Additionally, 10, Janpath has cleverly and perennially pitted these satraps against each other to strengthen its own hand... thus, at times when they need to be governing or taking on the opposition, they are stuck squabbling in their own house. Not a good sight, nor a good idea if good governance is required.


3. No Ideology to serve:

Unlike the CPM's class act (and US bashing, and China cuddling), or the BJP's Hindutva plank, The Congress' doesn't have any ideological pulls, except the short term ones that it chooses. "Aam aadmi" seems to be the only long term ideology that they have ("secularism" comes a close second).

This development-based agenda is a good idea, since it usually means that decisions would be taken on logic, rather than ideology. Its better to have someone with a people-focus at power, rather than those who have other pulls. Then, there is also the ideological danger of going too far with an idea - remember Germany.

BUT:
No ideology results in no work... if development was indeed the Congress ideology that they believed in, they've failed miserably. Even the BJP has done better on that count. Their secular card is definitely doing a shabby job of covering their modesty. And without any long term ideology, the ideal the congress seems to live by is Power - they'll do anything to get it.

Plus, without a central pillar to hold on to, it is very very easy to get swayed by coalition pulls - something we witnessed during the last 5 years.

4. Development Agenda:

The UPA has taken some extremely important steps over the past 5 years - the ones that I'd list are - RTI Act, US-India Nuke deal, NREGA, NRHM, and increased support to the SSA. (If this sounds like acronym soup, Google ki jai!!). Even more important I'd say is the empowerment of Panchayati Raj's under Mr. Aiyar.

All these are potentially revolutionary steps towards creating a better democracy, and social welfare. The NDA too took many such important steps, but not in such a clear way.

BUT:
IMPLEMENTATION - total failure by the UPA. Which is surprising considering the surfeit of administrators that their ranks contain. NREGA is beset by corruption, and SSA hasn't really succeeded at the secondary level.

As for the BJP, I'd say that they're not far behind... if the INC banners their development and aam aadmi focus, the BJP actually does it... Most of the UPA's achievements built on the foundation that the BJP quietly set during their tenure - the Nuke deal was laid by BJP, they started the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, the Golden Quadrilateral and Gram Sadak Yojanas were tremendously successful implementations under their watch. IT boomed under their watch, and the telecom revolution truly started during their term (although i'd doubt if they can take all the credit for the inevitable). Even the vastly unpopular Disinvestments actually helped...

Its a pity that they didn't have the support of the English language press, and neither did they go about tomtomming their achievements. The problem was that they forgot a small detail when doing all this - the village man. But even this was a case of things getting bad before getting better - unlike the Congress' implementation, which has usually led only to a distribution of poverty, the BJP has a more right of centre view of trickle-down benefits. It works sometimes, sometimes it doesn't. Unfortunately, in my view, the BJP put too much trust in that, rather than focussing also on direct action at those levels (something that the UPA has tried).

However, as I said, implementation is the key.... and Congress has done quite badly on that front.


The three reasons that I'd think twice (apart from the BUTS that i listed above):

a) Sonia Gandhi and Family - Dictator for life:

The Congress survives for a surname. It listens to their every word, and would even sweep their floor if ordered so. When they're so preoccupied with satisfying her fancies (and beta's too), how can we expect them to listen to us common folk? And with no sign of inner democracy, I'd doubt its a good idea to put a bigger democracy in their hands.

b) Promiscuity for Power:
Certainly not a good idea to bring a group that'll screw anyone and sell their virgin ideals to get their preferred seat in parliament (the treasury side seats). Makes one wonder what they'd do after coming to power.

c) Constitutional respect:

Given the consistent way that Congress Govt's have torn down democratic institutions and constitutional bodies, is it a good idea to give them more time??

SIGChaos

We've just heard Varun Gandhi, and before him, Messrs Mutalik and Co., Raj Thakeray and family before that. Others too come to mind - AR Antulay, Jodhaa-Akbar, Non-Maharashtrians vs Manoos, Kandhamal, Gorkhaland, Gujjars, Da Vinci Code, MF Hussain, the Shahi Imam, Taslima Nasreen and a hundred other examples of intolerance and idle minds coming together in a volatile mix.

It wont be long before these pet peeves and psychotic hatreds explode in a fireball, and join their other examples- Maoists, NE Rebels, LeT and other madmen. We're hemorrhaging internally. And unfortunately, there's no way to put that lightly.

Well, the situation may not be as bad as it seems, but it does get very depressing to switch on the boob tube and see a new violent protest every day.

So heres a word of advice to Messrs Raj Thakeray, MIM, Togadia, Mutalik and other 'leaders' of these mobs - Get innovative. Riots and violent protests are getting old fashioned. Its interesting for about a month, but after that, it just seems that you lack the brains to think up new ways to unleash chaos. Then of course, you guys are wasting your time on these silly stunts.

Election blues (saffrons??)

Just a small observation here - have you suddenly noticed how a lot of websites seem to be filled with ads for LK advani for PM (leads to www.lkadvani.in)??? Even Times of India and other sites.... guess the BJP has started its battle preparation... if only they could first quell the fires in their own house, AND get in new, young leaders, like the congress is doing.

As we come closer to the elections, this blog will continue to follow the issues and opinions, and post our own. A request though, to all those who are even slightly interested in our Nation's welfare - Register your names on the voter rolls, get ur voter ID card, and VOTE!!!!

But not blindly - read, analyze, meet the local leaders if possible, get their opinions and make an INFORMED DECISION - I will not offer any suggestions, except the one in the previous sentence (not the previous paragraph ;-)) Whoever you vote for, make sure that the democracy that our founders envisioned wins!!

Police - Not Robots!

Every time I hear some self-righteous Human Rights activist or page 3 persona complaining about how rude and heavy-handed the police are, or about why the police are curbing their 'rights' when they check them for DUIs or breaking up parties "way too early" for their regal liking, one part of me wants to take the nearest heavy object and hurl it at the instrument from where their venom is being emitted.

Too bad that most of the time, the actual Highnesses are far away, in the cosy comfort of an air-conditioned TV studio, having been chauffer-driven there in their fancy cars, spewing dust and fumes on the policemen they are criticizing, and the poor of this land that they don't really seem to care about.

I agree, the police are quite often extremely heavy-handed. But understand their situation also. They are human and not robocops. Look at what they have to endure - low pay, shabby treatment, being tossed around at will by the netas, and almost no chance of advancement. So before you talk, try to understand.

And if you think you are qualified enough and have the right to criticize the police, I suggest taht you do the following before talking:

1. Find the busiest, noisiest and dirtiest road intersection in your city.

2. Leave the house early morning, and travel there by bus; preferably on a summer day. Carry no food or water with you. Take an unpaid leave on that day.

3. Stand at that spot for the next 10 hours, with only an hour or so lunch break. Find the dirtiest hotel in the vicinity, and have your lunch there.

4. Get shouted at by random strangers. If there is a politician around, or a politicians convoy, try and stop it or make it follow traffic rules, and watch the consequences.

5. After a 14 hour vigil at the spot, without rest (except for the lunch), and without sitting at all, except for short stretches, go back home by bus (crowded of course), and not a deluxe bus, just a normal commuter bus.

6. After reaching home, give yourself your day's salary of a princely 200 Rs. (Incidentally, this is on the higher side - a Constable usually earns less that 5000 Rs a month, not even enough for a decent house rent).

7. Do this for a week, preferably alternating between taking very long walks around dirty neighbourhoods to simulate a beat. On two days, do the beat at night. If there is a festival on those days, make ur duty stretch to 16 hours.


Now, after doing all this, you have passed the Police Etiquette and Sensitivity Test (PEST), and are worthy of spewing all the venom you have at the force.

The Police Life - not a dog's day

Chacko Joseph-ji pointed out all the points that I had missed, which made me wonder how a common man could understand it at all.... there really isn't any way to understand that. Chackoji and I will continue to list all the issues and tortures that a Police cop has to endure... hopefully that would lead to understanding rather than blind jingoism or hatred. Both extremes are bad.

About Pete's Blog

A lot of people have been wondering where Peter Coates' (Pete's) Intelligence Blog went....

So, FYI, Pete's blog, formerly located at http://spyingbadthings.blogspot.com has moved to http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/.

This move has been made mainly recognition of the shift in focus of Pete's old blog from purely Australian affairs to a more broader perspective of South Asia and Asia Pacific and Naval affairs in the Indian Ocean.

You can also go directly to it by clicking on the link on the blogroll to the right.

Cheers
Sniperz

Time to Strike?

Now that Pakistan has got the evidence they have been clamouring for, it will be interesting to see how long they take to "analyze" it and take action. One doubts that they will. As it is, they have got a shot in the arm, thanks to the US saying that the perpetrators can be tried in Pakistan itself, and China still sticking with the disingenuous "Deccan Mujahedeen" farce.

Perhaps its time to act. As Nitin Pai pointed out eloquently on the Acorn, the proof gives us a justification to take an action, but is not an action by itself. Neither will any other country act when we don't. So, based on what Pakistan does next, it is time to tell the rest of the patronizing, peace-mongering world to p*** off, and take action on our own... here's why.

1) Pakistan will not take any action, even with the evidence (which it used as a time-wasting tactic)
2) Neither US nor China will help, and in fact, would want to stop a strike, and will support Pakistan
3) UNSC is a no-no, for an obvious multitude of reasons.
4) The Pakistani war-mongering has run its course, and will not hold now.
5) The camps, which were emptied and leaders who were hidden will now slowly end their hibernation and come out once the snows melt.
6) Ironically enough, it is once the snows melt (quite literally) that we have the best conditions to fight.

What we should do now is simple - prepare our infrastructure, intelligence and military assets for short, intense (and mostly covert) strikes on Pakistani terrorists, and ISI "rogues". Best time would be in early February - not too near to elections, neither too close to the end of winter.