Thursday, March 26, 2009

Election Watch: Joining the astrologers - Poll predictions

I'm loath to predict the results of this elections, given the 2004 fiasco, but I'll try... maybe we can try verifying that with what the astrologers say:

It will be a hung house, with Congress losing upto 20 seats from last time. They will however gain seats in other areas, especially Orissa (although BJD will do much better over there). BJP will definitely do better, and will probably make up around 20 seats. However, both of these are not enough to get them to power, unless they band together - not likely either.

Regional parties will find this election to be their starting gun for the future - the 3rd front will get around 120 seats, but will disintegrate after the results - most of the constituents, who are even more promiscuous than the Congress (common whores have less of a choice than a courtesan) will join one or the other. Left will be left cold.

Given the BJP's infighting, it is difficult to see how they can actually pull this off... Congress has had a headstart, but their own house seems more precarious than a mountain of melting butter. BJP will gain from UPA's shakiness, and the splitting of the "secular" vote.

Final prediction - UPA may come back, but with a wafer thin majority. However, that depends on their allies. BJP could still pull it off, if they can stitch up alliances fast. They still need to have a good development-driven, common-man-focussed manifesto though - and sell that hard.

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