Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Just so Stories- How Pakistan got its bomb

Here's a Guardian Report about how the US turned a blind eye to Pakistan's Nuclear activities, and even helped it along:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0%2C%2C2188777%2C00.html

The man who knew too much

He was the CIA's expert on Pakistan's nuclear secrets, but Rich Barlow was thrown out and disgraced when he blew the whistle on a US cover-up. Now he's to have his day in court. Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark report

Saturday October 13, 2007
The Guardian


Rich Barlow idles outside his silver trailer on a remote campsite in Montana - itinerant and unemployed, with only his hunting dogs and a borrowed computer for company. He dips into a pouch of American Spirit tobacco to roll another cigarette. It is hard to imagine that he was once a covert operative at the CIA, the recognised, much lauded expert in the trade in Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).

He prepared briefs for Dick Cheney, when Cheney was at the Pentagon, for the upper echelons of the CIA and even for the Oval Office. But when he uncovered a political scandal - a conspiracy to enable a rogue nation to get the nuclear bomb - he found himself a marked man.

In the late 80s, in the course of tracking down smugglers of WMD components, Barlow uncovered reams of material that related to Pakistan. It was known the Islamic Republic had been covertly striving to acquire nuclear weapons since India's explosion of a device in 1974 and the prospect terrified the west - especially given the instability of a nation that had had three military coups in less than 30 years . Straddling deep ethnic, religious and political fault-lines, it was also a country regularly rocked by inter-communal violence. "Pakistan was the kind of place where technology could slip out of control," Barlow says.

He soon discovered, however, that senior officials in government were taking quite the opposite view: they were breaking US and international non-proliferation protocols to shelter Pakistan's ambitions and even sell it banned WMD technology. In the closing years of the cold war, Pakistan was considered to have great strategic importance. It provided Washington with a springboard into neighbouring Afghanistan - a route for passing US weapons and cash to the mujahideen, who were battling to oust the Soviet army that had invaded in 1979. Barlow says, "We had to buddy-up to regimes we didn't see eye-to-eye with, but I could not believe we would actually give Pakistan the bomb.

How could any US administration set such short-term gains against the long-term safety of the world?" Next he discovered that the Pentagon was preparing to sell Pakistan jet fighters that could be used to drop a nuclear bomb.

Barlow was relentless in exposing what he saw as US complicity, and in the end he was sacked and smeared as disloyal, mad, a drunk and a philanderer. If he had been listened to, many believe Pakistan might never have got its nuclear bomb; south Asia might not have been pitched into three near-nuclear conflagrations; and the nuclear weapons programmes of Iran, Libya and North Korea - which British and American intelligence now acknowledge were all secretly enabled by Pakistan - would never have got off the ground. "None of this need have happened," Robert Gallucci, special adviser on WMD to both Clinton and George W Bush, told us. "The vanquishing of Barlow and the erasing of his case kicked off a chain of events that led to all the nuclear-tinged stand-offs we face today. Pakistan is the number one threat to the world, and if it all goes off - a nuclear bomb in a US or European city- I'm sure we will find ourselves looking in Pakistan's direction."

US aid to Pakistan tapered off when the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan. Dejected and impoverished, in 1987 Pakistan's ruling military responded by selling its nuclear hardware and know-how for cash, something that would have been obvious to all if the intelligence had been properly analysed. "But the George HW Bush administration was not looking at Pakistan," Barlow says. "It had new crises to deal with in the Persian Gulf where Saddam Hussein had invaded Kuwait."

As the first Gulf war came to an end with no regime change in Iraq, a group of neoconservatives led by Paul Wolfowitz, Dick Cheney, Lewis "Scooter" Libby and Donald Rumsfeld were already lobbying to finish what that campaign had started and dislodge Saddam. Even as the CIA amassed evidence showing that Pakistan, a state that sponsored Islamist terrorism and made its money by selling proscribed WMD technology, was the number one threat, they earmarked Iraq as the chief target.

When these neocons came to power in 2001, under President George W Bush, Pakistan was indemnified again, this time in return for signing up to the "war on terror". Condoleezza Rice backed the line, as did Rumsfeld, too. Pakistan, although suspected by all of them to be at the epicentre of global instability, was hailed as a friend. All energies were devoted to building up the case against Iraq.

It is only now, amid the recriminations about the war in Iraq and reassessments of where the real danger lies, that Barlow - the despised bringer of bad news about Pakistan - is finally to get a hearing. More than 20 years after this saga began, his case, filed on Capitol Hill, is coming to court later this month. His lawyers are seeking millions of dollars in compensation for Barlow as well as the reinstatement of his $80,000 a year government pension. Evidence will highlight what happened when ideologues took control of intelligence in three separate US administrations - those of Reagan, and of the two Bushes - and how a CIA analyst who would not give up his pursuit for the truth became a fall guy.

At first Barlow thought he was helping safeguard the world. "I just loved it," he says. His focus from the start was Pakistan, at the time suspected of clandestinely seeking nuclear weapons in a programme initiated by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the father of Benazir. "Everywhere I looked I kept coming up against intelligence about Pakistan's WMD programme," Barlow says. "I thought I was telling them what they needed to hear, but the White House seemed oblivious." Immersed in the minutiae of his investigations, he didn't appreciate the bigger picture: that Pakistan had, within days of Reagan's inauguration in 1981, gone from being an outcast nation that had outraged the west by hanging Bhutto to a major US ally in the proxy war in Afghanistan.

Within months Barlow was out of a job. A small band of Republican hawks, including Paul Wolfowitz, had convinced the president that America needed a new strategy against potential nuclear threats, since long-term policies such as détente and containment were not working. Reagan was urged to remilitarise, launch his Star Wars programme and neutralise ACDA. When the agency's staff was cut by one third, Barlow found himself out of Washington and stacking shelves in a food store in Connecticut, where he married his girlfriend, Cindy. He was not on hand in 1984 when intelligence reached the ACDA and the CIA that Pakistan had joined the nuclear club (the declared nuclear powers were Britain, France, the US, China and Russia) after China detonated a device on Pakistan's behalf.

Soon after, Barlow was re-employed to work as an analyst, specialising in Pakistan, at the Office of Scientific and Weapons Research (OSWR). The CIA was pursuing the Pakistan programme vigorously even though Reagan was turning a blind eye - indeed, Reagan's secretary of state, George Schultz, claimed in 1985: "We have full faith in [Pakistan's] assurance that they will not make the bomb."

Back on a government salary, Barlow, aged 31, moved to Virginia with his wife Cindy, also a CIA agent. From day one, he was given access to the most highly classified material. He learned about the workings of the vast grey global market in dual-use components - the tools and equipment that could be put to use in a nuclear weapons programme but that could also be ascribed to other domestic purposes, making the trade in them hard to spot or regulate. "There was tonnes of it and most of it was ending up in Islamabad," he says. "Pakistan had a vast network of procurers, operating all over the world." A secret nuclear facility near Islamabad, known as the Khan Research Laboratories, was being fitted out with components imported from Europe and America "under the wire". But the CIA obtained photographs. Floor plans. Bomb designs. Sensors picked up evidence of high levels of enriched uranium in the air and in the dust clinging to the lorries plying the road to the laboratories. Barlow was in his element.

However, burrowing through cables and files, he began to realise that the State Department had intelligence it was not sharing - in particular the identities of key Pakistani procurement agents, who were active in the US. Without this information, the US Commerce Department (which approved export licences) and US Customs (which enforced them) were hamstrung.

Barlow came to the conclusion that a small group of senior officials was physically aiding the Pakistan programme. "They were issuing scores of approvals for the Pakistan embassy in Washington to export hi-tech equipment that was critical for their nuclear bomb programme and that the US Commerce Department had refused to license," he says. Dismayed, he approached his boss at the CIA, Richard Kerr, the deputy director for intelligence, who summoned senior State Department officials to a meeting at CIA headquarters in Langley. Barlow recalls: "Kerr tried to do it as nicely as he could. He said he understood the State Department had to keep Pakistan on side - the State Department guaranteed it would stop working against us."

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Tuesday, October 9, 2007

75 years: Soaring hopes and Ambitious plans

At the 75th Anniversary Celebrations of the Indian Air Force at Hindon Air Base, the rows of VVIPs (Including the president, Vice-prez, PM and group) were enthralled by our hi-flying boys-in-blue. And what better occasion to trumpet the achievements and plans of the IAF. Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Major's address did just that; and in the process, helped clear up a lot of confusion, and provide a checklist (almost) of the Force's plans for the next few years.

You can check out the full address at Press Info. Bureau of GoI. (Link)

The Press releases for the MoD can be found here.


Some juicy tit-bits provided by the CAS are:

Aircraft Entering Service:

- Hawk AJTs- Will arrive next month.
- Phalcon AWACS- Will be here next year.
- LCA - 1st sqn operational by 2010 (IOC)

Contracts to be signed soon:

- 6 C-130J 'Super Hercules' Tactical Transport Aircraft for the Special Forces.
- 80 Mi-17 1Vs.
- 54 ALH Dhruvs.
- Aerostats for Air Defence and over-the-horizon Surveillance {{Obviously from Israel}}.

Upgrades:

- Jaguar & Mig-27 - Upgrades almost done
- Mirage-2000 & MIg-29 - Being Negotiated
- Il-76, An-32, Helos - Will start after that

Other:

- Integration of Civil Radars.
- 'Combat Communications Network' to be set up.
- Joint Design & Development of 5th Gen Fighter Aircraft and MTA (Medium Transport Aircraft) being negotiated. {{This is probably the clearest indicator that the FGFA project is not the PAK-FA being developed by Russia, since its design has been frozen.}}

Sunday, October 7, 2007

And yet, Terrorists don't rest

You'd have thought that after this week's mega-encounter at Tangmarg, the terrorists would rest for some time to allow the situation to cool-off. But they dont seem to have got the message. Yesterday, another infiltration attempt was foiled. Thats the fourth attempt this week. 19 Terrorists dead, 5 Armymen dead.

Result: 7 Terrorists killed, 2 Jawans dead. RIP to the soldiers.

The Hindu has the story (link):

Seven militants killed

Srinagar: Seven militants and two jawans were killed on Saturday when security forces foiled two infiltration bids near the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir.

A defence spokesman said here that six militants were killed in Tangdhar sector near the LoC.

Two jawans lost their lives in the gun battle.

One militant was killed by troops along the LoC in Baramulla district.

With Saturday’s incidents, the Army has foiled four bids by militants to infiltrate into Kashmir in as many days. Nineteen militants and five Army personnel were killed in these incidents. — PTI

Saturday, October 6, 2007

Tears & Pain

As the dust settles on the "Fiercest encounter in 5 years", the nation pays tribute to the two officers who lost their lives but took 9 terrorists with them. The Army has suffered a great loss with the heroic deaths of Maj. Vinay and Maj. Raghu Raman. One was to be married end of this month, the other was about to become a father.

The loss of these two bright, highly qualified officers is a big blow to the army, especially since they are the officers on the field, leading the men. It comes close on the heels of the death of Col. Vasanth, who died in a similar encounter in August. They all died as they lived, leading from the front.

It will be hard for the men who fought with the two officers to come to terms with their deaths. They were bright, enthusiastic, honourable and Brave men who lived by the Army credo of putting the country and the men above all else. Maj. Raghu Raman, even as he was being evacuated, was still thinking of how to destroy the Terrorists, his last words being a plea to his commanding officer not to let any terrorist escape.

Their families, strong in their grief are justifiably proud of their sons, a trait common to all Army families. Veteran Sub Maj (Hony Capt) S Krishnamurty, Raghuram's father said that while he was proud to be the father of a martyr, despite having lost his son in the service of the nation he would still advise his grand child, who is yet to be born, to join the Army and serve the nation. “I am an ex-serviceman and very proud of my son, who laid down his life for the country. That is all I can say.”

May Maj. Raman and Vinay R.I.P, their families find the courage to face their loss. Above all, let not their sacrifice be in vain, forgotten by an ungrateful nation.

The sister & father of Maj. D.R. Raman pay their respects as his coffin is brought to the airport in New Delhi on Thursday.

Bodies of the militants killed

The Indian Army Website keeps a tally of Anti-terrorist Operations on both the Northern as well as North-Eastern Regions. Check out http://indianarmy.nic.in/arantimili.htm.

Shiv Aroor's Arjun Ride

Here is the half hour Headlines Today special about the Arjun MBT, filed by Shiv Aroor (Blog) from the Heavy Vehicles Factory and CVRDE testing range in Avadi, Chennai. The lucky fellow got to spend two full days with the Tank, and was even given a chance to take it for a spin and get a few bumps and scratches on the paint.

There isn't much new information about the Tank thats said in the report, which is understandable given that the focus is on the layman who doesn't know a T-72 from a Mig. The camera-work is patchy, and wastes a lot of time showing repeats of the road-rage antics of Shiv the Driver. Still, considering that its a 20 minute long report, there are still some great bits of info, most notably a look into the impressive state-of-the-art manufacturing facility for the Arjuns. In addition, there are lots of small bits of info that can be gleaned by careful observers and enthusiastic analysts.

Shiv has a post on his impressions at his blog:
http://livefist.blogspot.com/2007/10/what-now-arjun.html


Take a look:

Part 1:


Part 2:



This latest piece echos Ajai Shukla's report about the Arjun in May, where he too did not have any criticisms of the Tank.

At that time, there was a palpable sense of both hope and anxiety. Hope because the DRDO was confident that it had a world-class product that would come out on top in the comparative trials; anxiety because the Army is notoriously obstinate about having exactly what it wants (even with best-of-Brochuritis). In addition, Arjun's long development and a strong Russian Arms Lobby make it all the more disliked by the Brass.

With the cancellation of the Comparative Trials, a travesty of monumental proportions, the DRDO's fears came true, but they quickly salvaged it by planning the Accelerated User Trials. Lets hope this isn't another hogwash. One thing is clear though- the Arjun has arrived.

Its a great achievement on part of the DRDO PR apparatus that they have converted two people, who till recently were hacking at the Arjun and DRDO. Lets hope they can convince the Generals as well.

Tangmarg Encounter- A Sinister plot.

The terrorists killed in the Tangmarg encounter recently were on a mission- Destroy or disrupt the rail link being built to connect the Valley to the rest of India. Recovered from them were rifles, grenades, detailed diaries and instructions in bomb-making and laying explosives. Even more alarming is the recovery of Night Vision Devices and GPS receivers.

The recovery confirms the Army's reports that the militants were using GPS to cross the LoC, reducing their dependence on Gujjars. The NVGs and GPS are highly sophisticated equipment that would be difficult for an unsupported terrorist outfit to obtain, which indicates ISI assistance. That makes their planned operation no longer an act of terrorism, but an act of sabotage; an act of war.

The slaughter of the terrorists, many of whom were top commanders in their area of operation will surely be a big blow to their masters, and it will take time to fill their shoes. Kudos to the 34 Rashtriya Rifles who were involved in the operation.

Here's the CNN-IBN report (link). The video (link) is embedded below. (Follow the video link if you can't view it)

Friday, September 28, 2007

Ramanjaneya Samvadam

Heres a Hilarious satirical piece I found at a forum (credits to Balunand). [Link]

Obviously, with all the Setusamudram controversy going on and with Rama's educational qualifications being questioned, its time for an answer from Ram. Which college did he study in. Well, heres his answer.

A BRIDGE TOO FAR

The Lord surveyed the Ram Setu and said "Hanuman, how diligently and strenuously you and your boys had built this bridge several centuries back. It is remarkable that it has withstood the ravages of the climatic and geographical changes over centuries. It is indeed an amazing feat especially considering the fact that a bridge at Hyderabad built by Gammon using latest technology collapsed the other day even before they could stick the posters on its pillars."

Hanuman with all humility spoke "Jai Sri Ram, it is all because of your grace. We just scribbled your name on the bricks and threw them in the sea and they held. No steel from TISCO or cement from Ambuja or ACC was ever used. But Lord, why rake up the old issue now."

Ram spoke "Well, Hanuman some people down there want to demolish the bridge and construct a canal. The contract involves lot of money and lot of money will be made. They will make money on demolition and make more money on construction "

Hanuman humbly bowed down and said "Why not we go down and present our case?"

Ram said "Times have changed since we were down there. History they say is only what is written in paper that can be carbon dated and counter-signed by a notary public from a western country of that time. Poetries are not good history anymore. They will ask us to submit age proof. We neither have a birth certificate nor school leaving certificate, and since we travelled mainly on foot and some times on your shoulders and in carts we don't have a driving license either. As far as the address proof is concerned the fact that I was born at Ayodhya is itself under litigation for over half a century. if I go in a traditional attire with bow and arrow, the ordinary folks may recognize me but Arjun Singh may take me to be some tribal and, at the most, offer a seat at IIT under the reserved category. Also, a God cannot walk in dressed in a three-piece suit and announce his arrival. It would make even the devotees suspicious. So it is a dilemma, so to say."

Hanuman said "I can vouch for you by saying that I was present personally when Neela built the bridge."

"My dear, Anjanaputra, it will not work. First of all neither of you are qualified engineers with a degree certificate from a recognized university. Then they will ask you to produce the lay-out plan, the project details, including financial outlay and how the project cost was met and the completion certificate. Nothing is accepted these days without documentary evidence in India. You may cough but unless a doctor certifies it, you have no cough. A pensioner may present himself personally but the authorities do not take it as proof. He has to produce a life-certificate to prove that he is alive. It is that complicated."

"Lord, I can't understand these historians. Hasn’t Valmikiji given an accurate description of the planetary positions when you, Lakshmanbhai, Bharathbhai and Shatrughnabhai were born? Every major event of your life has been described with reference to astronomical positions. What about the geography of India of our times? We never saw the desert in Rajasthan and the Saraswati and Drishadwati were in full flow then. Yamuna was flowing west and Sutlej to the east then. Valmikiji has mentioned all these. Can’t the present day chaps work with their softwares and satellite pictures and verify them? Over the years you have given darshan once in a while to saints like Surdas, Tulsidas, Saint Thyagaraja, Jayadeva, Bhadrachala Ramdas and even Sant Tukaram and still they disbelieve your existence and say Ramayana is a myth.

“Well”, said the Lord, What Surdas and others saw has been dismissed as hallucinations and those astronomical and geological data, I believe, are only later day insertions in Valmikiji’s fiction by some mischievous Brahmins who somehow became smart enough to calculate the positions backward by sheer imagination.

Hanuman said, The only option, I see, is to re-enact Ramayana on earth and set the government records straight once for all."

Lord smiled "It isn't that easy today, Hanumat. Ravan is apprehensive that he may look like a saint in front of Karunanidhi. I also spoke to his Mama Mareecha, who appeared as a golden deer to tempt Sita Maiyya when I was in the forest and he said that he won't take a chance of stepping on earth as long as Salman Khan is around."

Friday, August 31, 2007

Indo-US Nuclear Deal- Full Text

Manoj Joshi, whose blog is both interesting and eloquent, has been kind enough to trawl through the MEA's website and find the full text document of the Indo-US 123 Deal (in pdf format).

If you're interested in reading and analyzing it, you can check out the download link at http://www.savefile.com/files/946023. The file will be up for a month (more, depending upon the number of downloads).

The full text can also be found on the US State Department Website at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2007/aug/90050.htm

While you're at it, you can also download the July 18 2005 Agreement text (pdf document) from the MEA website (Bilateral Treaties and Documents section):

Implementation of the India-United States Joint Statement of July 18, 2005: India’s Separation Plan